After more than two years of cost-of-living pressure, you might expect shoppers to be fatigued, brand loyalty to be eroded, and new product launches to feel like a risk. But the data tells a more nuanced story.

The 2025 UK Shopper Trends Report from VST tracks how real shopper behavior is evolving — based not just on what consumers say, but on what they actually do at the shelf. And this year’s wave shows that while price remains critical, it’s no longer the whole story.

Instead, we’re seeing a more complex value equation emerge: shoppers are cautious but curious. Still scanning for deals, but open to quality and newness — when the value is clear.

Shoppers haven’t relaxed — but they’ve recalibrated

In early 2025, inflation is no longer rising at the pace it once was. But the mindset it created hasn’t disappeared. UK shoppers remain incredibly value-conscious — they’ve just adapted.

VST research shows that over 50% of household spend is now going towards essentials like groceries and bills - a figure has held steady. But what’s shifting is how shoppers define and seek value.

"We’ve seen a mindset evolve from crisis mode to cautious control. Shoppers aren’t cutting back fuAfter more than two years of cost-of-living pressure, you might expect shoppers to be fatigued, brand loyalty to be eroded, and new product launches to feel like a risk. But the data tells a more nuanced story.

The 2025 UK Shopper Trends Report from VST tracks how real shopper behavior is evolving — based not just on what consumers say, but on what they actually do at the shelf. And this year’s wave shows that while price remains critical, it’s no longer the whole story.

Instead, we’re seeing a more complex value equation emerge: shoppers are cautious but curious. Still scanning for deals, but open to quality and newness — when the value is clear.

Shoppers haven’t relaxed — but they’ve recalibrated

In early 2025, inflation is no longer rising at the pace it once was. But the mindset it created hasn’t disappeared. UK shoppers remain incredibly value-conscious — they’ve just adapted.

VST research shows that over 50% of household spend is now going towards essentials like groceries and bills - a figure has held steady. But what’s shifting is how shoppers define and seek value.

Price still matters — but shoppers are willing to try something new

Half of all shoppers still start their decision-making by looking for the cheapest item on the shelf. And 73% say they’re always on the lookout for money-off promotions. But these figures are both slightly down on last year, hinting at a softening in extreme deal-hunting behavior.

At the same time, 49% of shoppers said they tried a new product in the past month. That’s a remarkable figure for a market defined by caution — and it tells us innovation isn’t off the table. It just has to work harder.

Shoppers are willing to try something new if it hits one of three triggers:

• It offers better value than what they usually buy
• It’s on promotion
• It feels like a treat or indulgence they can justify

Brands planning launches in 2025 should see this as an opportunity — but also a challenge. Novelty alone won’t cut it. New products need to justify their place in the basket with clear benefits, standout positioning, or pricing that makes sense.

Own-label still dominates — but not everywhere

The rise of private label is a defining trend of the past two years. In UK grocery, own-label products now make up 63% of unit sales and 55% of value sales (NIQ Homescan). But that dominance isn’t as clear-cut as it seems.

Much of the volume is concentrated in categories where own-label is the default — like produce, bakery, and meat. These high-volume areas skew the total market share picture. But when you look at brand-led categories, the battleground looks very different.

VST’s data shows that brand preference remains strong in categories like:

• Spirits and alcohol
• Skincare and personal care
• Pet food

Meanwhile, categories like frozen, dairy, and household are far more contested, with shoppers frequently switching between brands and own-label based on price or availability.

This means brands can’t afford to generalise. Understanding where your category sits on this spectrum — and how exposed it is to private label — is now a strategic imperative.

Confidence is creeping back — but trust is still low

Interestingly, while fewer shoppers cite inflation as their number-one concern, anxiety hasn’t disappeared. It’s just shifted.

This year, more shoppers say they’re worried about “the economy” at large — rather than their personal financial situation. Confidence in household finances has seen a modest uptick. But faith in the government and broader economic recovery has dropped sharply. Just half as many people now believe the government will help them manage cost-of-living challenges compared to two years ago.

This reflects a broader mood: cautious, sceptical, and self-reliant. Shoppers aren’t looking for reassurance — they’re looking for proof.

In-store behavior still matters - perhaps more than ever

While value is driving more planned shopping, what happens at the shelf still holds serious sway.

Most UK shoppers say they plan their trips carefully — but they don’t always stick to the plan. On average, just 37% say they buy exactly what’s on their list, and that figure varies dramatically by category: from 63% in pet food to just 19% in snacks. Even in heavily planned categories like healthcare or beverages, over half of shoppers remain open to influence at the point of decision.

That means shelf presence and execution still have the power to sway decisions — even for budget-conscious shoppers. In fact, 78% of shoppers noticed an in-store display last month, with end-of-aisle promotions and shelf signage being the most recalled. These moments of visibility prompt reappraisal — and, often, action.

For brands and retailers, it’s a reminder that the shelf is still the “last mile” for influence. Executional levers like layout, signage, bundling, and price communication are critical in converting a cautious shopper into a confident one. Even in the most planned of categories, there’s still room to win — if your product can make its case clearly and compellingly in the moment that matters.

What should brands and retailers do?

The data points to a few clear strategies for those looking to win with today’s cost-conscious shopper:

1. Go beyond blunt discounting

Yes, price still matters. But shoppers are open to other kinds of value: longevity, quality, portion size, even sustainability. Messaging needs to make that case at-shelf.

2. Test before you launch

VST’s Virtual Shelf Testing lets brands test price, packaging, layout, and innovation with thousands of real shoppers before going live — removing guesswork and improving ROI.

3. Understand your category risk

Every category is different. Some are already heavily private label. Others are still brand-driven. Use data to see where you stand — and how shopper behavior is changing.

4. Don’t underestimate execution

From planogram visibility to promo mechanics, the basics still matter. Being visible, well-priced, and available where it counts is non-negotiable.

Shoppers in 2025 are still value-conscious — but not closed off. They’re still cost-aware — but not cost-obsessed. For brands and retailers, that means a real chance to re-engage, regain share, and reassert relevance. But only if your offer is clear, compelling, and backed by real shopper insight.

Download the full VST 2025 UK Shopper Trends Report here.

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